MARKET CONDITION
CURRENT ALLOCATION
market condition
current allocation
EXITS (INDICATORS) USED IN THIS MODEL:
INDICATOR
TIME-FRAME
STATUS
LAST CHANGE
LONG
NONE
mo dd, yyyy
LONG
NONE
mo dd, yyyy
SEASONAL
NONE
mo dd, yyyy
CURRENT ALLOCATION - LAST UPDATED OCTOBER 1, 2024
SECTOR
ALLOCATION
ETF EXAMPLE
MUT. FND. EX.
The Risk NumberÂŽ from Nitrogen is an objective, quantitative measurement of an investorâs true risk tolerance and the risk in a portfolio. The patented technology calculates a ârisk scoreâ on a scale from 1-99, utilizing a scientific framework that won the Nobel Prize for Economics.
DV+CE VARIANTS AT A GLANCE
STATUS
INDICATOR VALUE
NOTES
When in a POSITIVE position, DELTA-V must finish the market-week below the threshold 45.0 to switch to a BEAR market.
When in a NEGATIVE position, DELTA-V must finish the market-week above the threshold 55.0 to switch to a BULL market.
DELTA-V INDICATOR - EXITÂ &Â ENTRY SIGNALS
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF DELTA-V+CALENDAR AGAINST BENCHMARKS
MODEL
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
YTD
ITD
MDD
DV+CE
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
S&P 500 (SPY)
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
60/40 (VBINX)
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
1.23%
WHEN FOLLOWING DELTA-V POSITIVE INDICATOR
MAXIMUM EQUITY ALLOCATION
MINIMUM EQUITY ALLOCATION
Reallocation quarterly
Change in long-term trend, determined by DELTA-V Indicator. Typical trends last several years.
During Bull Markets per the DELTA-V Indicator.
During Bear Markets per the DELTA-V Indicator.
Emphasis is on the longer-term Bull and Bear cycles in the U.S. equity market. When DELTA-V switches to negative, the model allocates 100% to the CALENDARÂ EFFECTSÂ model.
WHEN FOLLOWING CALENDAR EFFECTS DURING BEAR MARKET
About 11 trades per year during Bear Markets.
None.
During Bear Markets, approx. 28% of the year.
During Bear Markets, approx. 72% of the year.
Market exposure drops from 100% during Bull Markets to about 28% during Bear Markets. Due to the higher trade frequency during Bear Markets, the DELTA-V/Calendar Model should only be used in circumstances that allow 12-14 trades per year and trade durations that typically last 6-8 market days. Highly recommended where activity restrictions are not an issue.
Model Description
The DELTA-V Model is a longer-term low-activity Model whose goal is to be invested in equities (mostly U.S.) during Bull Markets.
Activity occurs when a new Bull Market or Bear Market is signaled by the DELTA-V Indicator, and on quarterly intervals within ongoing Bull Markets.
Construction
During Bull Markets, equal allocations to the top 5 Type 1 and 2 asset classes from the Indicators and Rankings page Asset Class Ranking Table.
During Bear Markets (when DELTA-V is negative), 100% allocation to the CALENDARÂ EFFECTS model.
â
Portfolios are rebalanced Quarterly and at indicator changes.
About the DELTA-V Indicator
The DELTA-V indicator measures the changes in market trajectory by assessing price action and long-term supply and demand dynamics to signal Bull and Bear trends. This indicator emerged from statistical assessments of price actions, leveraging multiple technical indicators to delineate the marketâs bullish and bearish periods. It aims to illuminate the dynamics between supply and demand within the extended time-frame of months to years. These inputs undergo recalculations daily across a trailing one- year period, with the resultant ratios being weighted and amalgamated into a singular, statistically smoothed DELTA-V indicator.
When DELTA-V, in a Bull Market mode, breaches the Bear Market Threshold (45), it signifies a shift to Bear status. Conversely, in a Bear Market mode, piercing the Bull Market Threshold (55) triggers a shift to a new Bull status. Once a Bull or Bear mode is indicated, it persists until the DELTA-V indicator eventually breaches the opposite threshold. Typically, it requires months to years for DELTA-V to change its designated status.
The name "DELTA-V", meaning change in velocity, alludes to the indicator's measure of the market's capability for significant directional changes, much like the propulsion required for altering the trajectory of a spacecraft in the vast expanse of space.
The performance returns illustrated do not represent actual client accounts and are net of the highest management fee and trading costs which is 0.80%. Returns reflect since inception, one, five and tenâyear periods, and are reflected in U.S. dollars and assume that dividends are reinvested.
The strategies employed may involve technical trading techniques such as trend analysis, relative strength, moving averages, various momentum and related strategies. Technical trading models utilize mathematical algorithms to attempt to identify when markets are likely to increase or decrease and identify appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends and there is no assurance that the mathematical algorithms employed are designed properly, new data is accurately incorporated, or the software can accurately predict future market, industry and sector performance.
